Shanghai Premium Methodology
How the MetalCharts Shanghai premium is calculated: data sources, conversion math, update cadence, and known edge cases.
What the Shanghai Premium Measures
The Shanghai premium is the percentage gap between the price of physically-deliverable metal on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) and the global Western spot price for the same metal, expressed in the same currency and weight unit. A positive premium means Chinese buyers are paying more than the global benchmark, a real-time read on Chinese physical demand. A negative premium (discount) is rare and usually signals weak local demand or Yuan strength. The whole point of the figure is to surface the gap between paper-driven Western pricing and physical demand in the world's largest precious metals consumer. One caveat for silver: the SGE silver price includes China's 13% VAT, so the headline silver premium has that tax built in (details below).
Data Sources
Three independent inputs are required to compute the premium, and the answer is only as good as the weakest of the three:
- SGE benchmark price. For silver, Ag(T+D), the deferred-delivery contract that anchors the Chinese physical silver market. For gold, Au99.99, the 1kg, 99.99% purity benchmark contract used by Chinese banks and jewelers. Both are sourced from the SGE's public data feed, in CNY per gram (gold) or CNY per kilogram (silver). The silver price includes 13% VAT; the gold price carries none, because SGE gold trades are VAT-exempt.
- USD/CNY exchange rate. Spot mid-market rate from major FX providers, refreshed alongside the SGE pull. We use the onshore CNY rate, not offshore CNH, because the onshore rate is the one that actually applies to physical metal flows into China.
- US spot reference price. The current Western spot price (XAU/USD or XAG/USD) sourced from our primary price provider with fallback redundancy. This is the denominator the SGE figure is being compared against.
Conversion Math
The SGE quotes silver in CNY/kg and gold in CNY/g. Western spot is in USD per troy ounce. Converting requires two steps: currency, then weight unit.
Silver (CNY/kg → USD/oz):
USD/oz = (CNY/kg ÷ USD-to-CNY rate) × (31.1035 g/oz ÷ 1000 g/kg)
Gold (CNY/g → USD/oz):
USD/oz = (CNY/g ÷ USD-to-CNY rate) × 31.1035 g/oz
The 31.1035 figure is grams per troy ounce, the unit used for precious metals globally, not grams per avoirdupois ounce (28.3495). Using the wrong constant is a surprisingly common error in third-party premium calculations and produces a systematic ~10% offset.
Premium Formula
Once both prices are in USD per troy ounce, the premium is a simple percentage difference:
Premium % = ((SGE Price USD − US Spot USD) ÷ US Spot USD) × 100
Worked example. If the Ag(T+D) close is CNY 7,500/kg, the USD/CNY rate is 7.20, and US silver spot is $30.00/oz, then SGE silver in USD/oz is (7500 ÷ 7.20) × (31.1035 ÷ 1000) ≈ $32.40. Premium = ((32.40 − 30.00) ÷ 30.00) × 100 ≈ +8.0%.
Update Cadence
SGE benchmark prices are pulled hourly during Beijing trading hours: 9:00-11:30 AM and 1:30-3:30 PM, Monday through Friday. Outside those windows the SGE is closed and the benchmark holds at its most recent close.
The USD/CNY rate and US spot price both keep moving 24 hours a day. This means the displayed premium can drift even when the SGE itself is shut. That drift is mathematical, not a real signal. During Chinese holidays (Lunar New Year, Golden Week, Mid-Autumn Festival, etc.) the SGE close-stale window can stretch to a week or more and the premium becomes effectively meaningless until trading resumes.
Historical premium data is preserved hourly, so charts on theShanghai overview reflect the actual cadence, including the holiday flat-lines.
VAT in the Silver Premium
The SGE silver price is VAT-inclusive. The exchange's invoice rules (2022 revision, Article 23) set the VAT invoice price for delivered silver at the trade-day settlement price, tax included. We don't adjust it: the conversion above is currency and weight only. Western spot (LBMA or COMEX) carries no tax, so China's 13% silver VAT is part of the headline silver premium. A reading around +13% means Shanghai and Western prices are roughly level once the tax is removed.
To get the ex-VAT spread, divide the SGE price by 1.13 before converting, or equivalently:
Ex-VAT premium % = ((1 + Premium ÷ 100) ÷ 1.13 − 1) × 100
Subtracting 13 percentage points gets close for small premiums but drifts as the premium widens: a +30% headline reading is about +15% ex-VAT, not +17%. For data before April 2019, use the rate in force at the time (16% from May 2018, 17% before that).
Gold is different. Investment-grade gold traded on the SGE is VAT-exempt, so the Au99.99 price has no tax in it and the gold premium can be read as is. The full breakdown of the VAT effect, including landed and retail cost, lives on our VAT explainer page.
Known Limitations
- Holiday flat-lines. SGE closures of more than one trading day produce mechanically frozen premium values. These are visible on the chart but should be excluded from statistical analysis.
- FX latency. Our USD/CNY refresh is hourly, aligned to the SGE pull. Intra-hour FX moves are not reflected in the displayed premium until the next refresh.
- SGE vs SHFE. The SGE benchmark we use is the physical spot market. Some sources publish the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) silver futures instead, which trades at different levels. Our overview page also surfaces SHFE warehouse inventory but does not blend it into the headline premium.
- Onshore vs offshore CNY. We use onshore CNY because that's the rate physical importers actually face. Sites using offshore CNH will report slightly different premium values, especially during periods of CNY/CNH divergence.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What price does the Shanghai Gold Exchange actually publish?
- The SGE publishes intraday and closing prices for several physical contracts. For silver we use the Ag(T+D) deferred-delivery contract; for gold we use Au99.99 (24-karat 1kg). Both are denominated in Chinese Yuan per gram (CNY/g) for gold and CNY per kilogram (CNY/kg) for silver, and both require physical delivery rather than cash settlement.
- What exchange rate do you use for USD/CNY conversion?
- We use the spot USD/CNY mid-market rate sourced from major FX providers, refreshed alongside our hourly SGE pull. We deliberately do not use the offshore CNH rate, the PBOC daily fixing, or last week's average. Using a stale or distorted rate is the single most common reason third-party Shanghai premium quotes disagree.
- How often does the Shanghai premium update?
- Hourly during SGE trading sessions (Beijing time 9:00-11:30 AM and 1:30-3:30 PM, Monday-Friday). Outside those windows the SGE benchmark is frozen at the most recent close, but the USD/CNY rate and US spot keep moving, so the premium can drift slightly even when the SGE itself is closed.
- Why doesn't your premium match other sources I see online?
- Three usual suspects: (1) different benchmark contract, e.g. some sites use SHFE futures rather than SGE spot, which trade at meaningfully different levels; (2) different exchange rate (offshore CNH vs onshore CNY); (3) for silver, some sources strip China's 13% VAT out of the SGE price while we publish the SGE price as quoted, VAT included. Reconciling all three usually closes the gap.
- Does the Shanghai silver premium include VAT?
- Yes. The SGE silver price is VAT-inclusive: the exchange's invoice rules (2022 revision, Article 23) set the invoice price for delivered silver at the settlement price, tax included. We publish that price as quoted and compare it with Western spot, which carries no tax, so China's 13% VAT is built into the headline silver premium. A reading around +13% means the two markets are roughly level once the tax is removed. For the ex-VAT spread, use (1 + premium) ÷ 1.13 − 1. The gold premium has no VAT in it, since SGE gold trades are VAT-exempt.
- What happens to the premium during Chinese holidays?
- During Lunar New Year, Golden Week, and other multi-day SGE closures, the most recent close is held flat while Western markets keep trading. The displayed premium during those windows is mechanically meaningless. We flag it on the chart but do not recompute. Historical analysis should exclude those windows.