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Shanghai Premium Methodology

How the MetalCharts Shanghai premium is calculated — data sources, conversion math, update cadence, and known edge cases.

What the Shanghai Premium Measures

The Shanghai premium is the percentage gap between the price of physically-deliverable metal on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) and the global Western spot price for the same metal, expressed in the same currency and weight unit. A positive premium means Chinese buyers are paying more than the global benchmark — a real-time read on Chinese physical demand. A negative premium (discount) is rare and usually signals weak local demand or Yuan strength. The whole point of the figure is to surface the gap between paper-driven Western pricing and physical demand in the world's largest precious metals consumer.

Data Sources

Three independent inputs are required to compute the premium, and the answer is only as good as the weakest of the three:

  • SGE benchmark price. For silver, Ag(T+D) — the deferred-delivery contract that anchors the Chinese physical silver market. For gold, Au99.99 — the 1kg, 99.99% purity benchmark contract used by Chinese banks and jewelers. Both are sourced from the SGE's public data feed and are pre-VAT, in CNY per gram (gold) or CNY per kilogram (silver).
  • USD/CNY exchange rate. Spot mid-market rate from major FX providers, refreshed alongside the SGE pull. We use the onshore CNY rate, not offshore CNH, because the onshore rate is the one that actually applies to physical metal flows into China.
  • US spot reference price. The current Western spot price (XAU/USD or XAG/USD) sourced from our primary price provider with fallback redundancy. This is the denominator the SGE figure is being compared against.

Conversion Math

The SGE quotes silver in CNY/kg and gold in CNY/g. Western spot is in USD per troy ounce. Converting requires two steps: currency, then weight unit.

Silver (CNY/kg → USD/oz):
USD/oz = (CNY/kg ÷ USD-to-CNY rate) × (31.1035 g/oz ÷ 1000 g/kg)

Gold (CNY/g → USD/oz):
USD/oz = (CNY/g ÷ USD-to-CNY rate) × 31.1035 g/oz

The 31.1035 figure is grams per troy ounce — the unit used for precious metals globally — not grams per avoirdupois ounce (28.3495). Using the wrong constant is a surprisingly common error in third-party premium calculations and produces a systematic ~10% offset.

Premium Formula

Once both prices are in USD per troy ounce, the premium is a simple percentage difference:

Premium % = ((SGE Price USD − US Spot USD) ÷ US Spot USD) × 100

Worked example. If the Ag(T+D) close is CNY 7,500/kg, the USD/CNY rate is 7.20, and US silver spot is $30.00/oz, then SGE silver in USD/oz is (7500 ÷ 7.20) × (31.1035 ÷ 1000) ≈ $32.40. Premium = ((32.40 − 30.00) ÷ 30.00) × 100 ≈ +8.0%.

Update Cadence

SGE benchmark prices are pulled hourly during Beijing trading hours: 9:00-11:30 AM and 1:30-3:30 PM, Monday through Friday. Outside those windows the SGE is closed and the benchmark holds at its most recent close.

The USD/CNY rate and US spot price both keep moving 24 hours a day. This means the displayed premium can drift even when the SGE itself is shut — that drift is mathematical, not a real signal. During Chinese holidays (Lunar New Year, Golden Week, Mid-Autumn Festival, etc.) the SGE close-stale window can stretch to a week or more and the premium becomes effectively meaningless until trading resumes.

Historical premium data is preserved hourly, so charts on theShanghai overview reflect the actual cadence, including the holiday flat-lines.

Why We Exclude VAT From the Headline Number

The SGE benchmark is quoted pre-VAT. China levies a 13% value-added tax on silver imports (gold is largely exempt for investment-grade bars), but folding that tax into the headline premium would double-count once a Western-side buyer compared the figure to LBMA or COMEX spot. More importantly, the VAT is a structural cost floor — it doesn't move week-to-week with Chinese demand. Mixing it into the displayed premium would obscure the actual demand signal that traders watch this number for. The full breakdown of the VAT effect lives on our VAT explainer page.

Known Limitations

  • Holiday flat-lines. SGE closures of more than one trading day produce mechanically frozen premium values. These are visible on the chart but should be excluded from statistical analysis.
  • FX latency. Our USD/CNY refresh is hourly, aligned to the SGE pull. Intra-hour FX moves are not reflected in the displayed premium until the next refresh.
  • SGE vs SHFE. The SGE benchmark we use is the physical spot market. Some sources publish the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) silver futures instead, which trades at different levels. Our overview page also surfaces SHFE warehouse inventory but does not blend it into the headline premium.
  • Onshore vs offshore CNY. We use onshore CNY because that's the rate physical importers actually face. Sites using offshore CNH will report slightly different premium values, especially during periods of CNY/CNH divergence.

Frequently Asked Questions

What price does the Shanghai Gold Exchange actually publish?
The SGE publishes intraday and closing prices for several physical contracts. For silver we use the Ag(T+D) deferred-delivery contract; for gold we use Au99.99 (24-karat 1kg). Both are denominated in Chinese Yuan per gram (CNY/g) for gold and CNY per kilogram (CNY/kg) for silver, and both require physical delivery rather than cash settlement.
What exchange rate do you use for USD/CNY conversion?
We use the spot USD/CNY mid-market rate sourced from major FX providers, refreshed alongside our hourly SGE pull. We deliberately do not use the offshore CNH rate, the PBOC daily fixing, or last week's average — using a stale or distorted rate is the single most common reason third-party Shanghai premium quotes disagree.
How often does the Shanghai premium update?
Hourly during SGE trading sessions (Beijing time 9:00-11:30 AM and 1:30-3:30 PM, Monday-Friday). Outside those windows the SGE benchmark is frozen at the most recent close, but the USD/CNY rate and US spot keep moving — so the premium can drift slightly even when the SGE itself is closed.
Why doesn't your premium match other sources I see online?
Three usual suspects: (1) different benchmark contract — some sites use SHFE futures rather than SGE spot, which trade at meaningfully different levels; (2) different exchange rate (offshore CNH vs onshore CNY); (3) some sources fold VAT into the headline premium while we publish the pre-VAT difference. Reconciling all three usually closes the gap.
Why don't you bake VAT into the Shanghai premium?
The SGE benchmark itself is quoted pre-VAT, so adding a 13% VAT to the comparison would double-count. The VAT is real but it's a cost-of-import structural floor, not a demand signal — folding it in would obscure changes in actual buying pressure, which is what most traders watch the premium for. We cover the VAT impact separately on the VAT explainer page.
What happens to the premium during Chinese holidays?
During Lunar New Year, Golden Week, and other multi-day SGE closures, the most recent close is held flat while Western markets keep trading. The displayed premium during those windows is mechanically meaningless — we flag it on the chart but do not recompute. Historical analysis should exclude those windows.