Palladium All-Time High

Palladium's all-time high of approximately $3,440 per ounce was reached in March 2022. Russia's invasion of Ukraine triggered panic over sanctions on Russian palladium exports, and prices surged from around $2,400 to over $3,400 in just weeks. Russia accounts for roughly 40% of global palladium production through Norilsk Nickel, the world's largest palladium producer.

The 2022 spike was not a one-off event. It was the climax of a multi-year supply deficit that had been draining the palladium market since approximately 2012. During this decade, global demand consistently outpaced mine production, with the gap filled by drawdowns from above-ground inventories and dwindling Russian state stockpiles.

Tightening emissions standards in Europe, China, and the United States increased the palladium loading per catalytic converter. Mine supply stayed flat because palladium is largely produced as a byproduct of platinum and nickel mining, making it nearly impossible for producers to ramp up output independently.

Since the 2022 peak, palladium has declined sharply. The electric vehicle transition has structurally reduced the long-term demand outlook: battery electric vehicles need zero catalytic converters. Automakers have accelerated platinum-for-palladium substitution programs, with several major manufacturers implementing partial or full swaps in new gasoline catalyst designs. Russian palladium exports have continued to flow through alternative trade channels, easing supply fears. The combination of weakening demand and resilient supply has shifted market sentiment from deficit to surplus.