Shanghai Premium History
The Shanghai silver and gold premium — the spread between SGE benchmark prices (in USD-equivalent) and Western spot — is one of the cleanest physical-tightness signals in the global precious-metals market. This page covers the full daily series from 2020 to today, the annual averages, the most extreme outlier days, and the macro events that drove them.
Why the historical view matters
The headline Shanghai premium on any given day is noisy — USD/CNY shifts, single-day SGE disruptions, and Western market holidays all push the displayed number around. The signal is in the trend: how the premium behaves over weeks and months, where the annual average sits, and which years saw sustained outlier premiums.
Sustained high premium periods (annual average above $1.50/oz silver, or $20/oz gold) have historically lined up with strong Chinese physical demand and have been associated with subsequent strength in Western prices. Sustained low premium periods often reflect ample physical supply and weaker demand cycles.
Key caveat: the apparent premium can move significantly with USD/CNY without any change in underlying physical tightness. To isolate the physical signal, watch the premium and SGE inventory withdrawals together (we surface withdrawals on the SGE inventory page).
Year-by-year context
- 2020
- Shanghai premium volatile during initial COVID disruption. Silver premium briefly spiked in March-April 2020 as Western COMEX disorder spread to physical markets, then normalized to ~$0.30-$0.80/oz for the rest of the year.
- 2021
- Strong Chinese industrial silver demand (solar panel buildout) drove sustained premium above $1.50/oz for much of the year. Annual average premium one of the highest on record.
- 2022
- Premium normalized as global silver markets adjusted to Russia-Ukraine driven flows. USD/CNY weakness mid-year temporarily compressed the displayed premium without much change in underlying physical tightness.
- 2023
- Premium tightened as Chinese silver imports surged, with average premium settling in the $0.50-$1.20/oz range. SGE silver inventory withdrawals hit multi-year highs in Q3.
- 2024
- Brief disruption in Q1 (see FAQ) drove premium to short-term outlier highs. Underlying premium normalized to historical averages by mid-year.
- 2025
- Sustained higher premium driven by silver squeeze dynamics in Western markets and continued Chinese solar/industrial demand. Premium frequently above $2/oz in second half.
How to read the premium chart
Hover any point on the historical chart to see the SGE benchmark price (CNY/g for gold, CNY/kg for silver), the USD-converted equivalent, the Western spot price for the same minute, and the resulting premium in both USD/oz and percentage terms.
SGE holidays (Lunar New Year, Golden Week, Mid-Autumn Festival) are flagged on the chart with shaded windows. The premium during those windows is held flat at the most recent close while Western markets continue trading; do not interpret those plateaus as real physical signals.
Decade- and year-level averages are computed from clean trading days only (holiday windows excluded), so they are directly comparable across years.
Frequently asked questions
- How far back does the Shanghai premium history go?
- MetalCharts tracks the Shanghai silver and gold premium daily from 2020 onwards. SGE itself publishes pricing back to 2002, but accurate USD-converted premium series require an aligned spot Western benchmark series and an aligned USD/CNY series, which we standardize from 2020 forward to keep the data internally consistent.
- What's the all-time high Shanghai silver premium?
- During the post-pandemic supply squeeze in 2021 and again briefly during the SGE silver disruption in early 2024, premiums spiked above $5/oz (roughly 25-30% above Western spot). The annual average premium tends to settle in the $0.50-$1.50/oz range (3-7% above Western), with the highest sustained averages occurring in years of strong Chinese industrial demand and tight global silver supply.
- Why does the Shanghai premium fluctuate so much?
- Three structural drivers: (1) Chinese physical demand cycles — jewelers, refiners, solar panel manufacturers buy in bursts; (2) silver export restrictions and import duties that limit arbitrage between SGE and Western markets; (3) USD/CNY currency flow distortions during periods of capital controls. Day-to-day, the premium also moves with USD/CNY shifts even when SGE is closed, since one leg is in CNY and the other in USD.
- Is a high Shanghai premium bullish for silver?
- It's historically been a leading indicator of physical tightness, which often (but not always) precedes Western price strength. Sustained premium above $2/oz combined with falling SGE inventory has preceded several major silver rallies. However, premium can spike on temporary disruptions (logistics, regulation) without a meaningful Western price impact. Use it alongside SGE inventory withdrawals and CFTC positioning.
- How do Chinese holidays affect the historical premium?
- During SGE closures (Lunar New Year, Golden Week) the premium displayed on charts is mechanically meaningless — the SGE leg is frozen at its last close while Western markets keep trading. We mark these windows on charts and exclude them from historical averages, but they're visible in the raw data.
- What happened during the 2024 SGE silver disruption?
- In early 2024, SGE silver experienced an unusual liquidity event tied to a temporary suspension of bulk withdrawals, which briefly drove the apparent premium to multi-year highs as Western buyers couldn't easily arbitrage the difference. The premium normalized within several weeks once SGE clarified withdrawal procedures. We surface this episode in the historical chart with annotation.



